Super Bowl Lines

Conference Results:

Philadelphia (Mike, Dav, Matt)
ARIZONA (Ian, Flip, Chris, Eric)

PITTSBURGH (Mike, Ian, Chris, Eric)
Baltimore (Dav, Flip, Matt)


Massive Props to Ian for picking the overs in both games also... thus making him 4-0 this week.

Current Standings:
7-3: Ian, Eric
6-4: CMart
4-6: Dav, Mike, Flip
1-7: Phil
1-9: Matt

Pittsburgh (-7) Arizona 46.5 in Tampa, FL

Ian and Eric tied for the playoff lead. I will ask each of you to pick the game, but also the O/U just as a tiebreak. If your picks completely matchup, I will ask that you each pick the specific margin of victory and closer wins.


Sidenote: Dav just booked his airline tix to his brother in law's bachelor party in Vegas. Going for the first and second rounds of the NCAA tourney. All gambling advise will be taken and played. Duke pays at 9-1 right now to win it all... good play? Also will be placing futures bets for MLB and NBA.

Division Round Results - Conference Championship Lines

Winners:
baltimore U
arizona U
philadelphia U
PITTSBURGH O

This Week:
4-0: Eon
3-1: Eric
2-2: Dav, CMart
1-3: Flip, Hankles, Phil, Ham,

Playoff Standings:
5-3: Ian, Eric
4-4: Dav, CMart
3-5: Mike, Flip
1-7: Phil, Matt

philadelphia (-3) ARIZONA 47.5
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) baltimore 33.5

Tee It Up!!

Q: If a punt is in the air while the game clock expires and the receiver signals and makes a fair catch, is the game over?

• Danny Clark, LB, Giants: "Yes."
• Madison: "Yes."
• Damon Huard, QB, Chiefs: "If the punter touched it, then the game is over."
• Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: "Yes."
• Pace: "Yes. It's an untimed play, isn't it?
• Correct answer: No, the receiving team can try a fair-catch kick.

Q: What is a fair-catch kick?

• Brendon Ayanbadejo, LB, Ravens: "The ball is put on the tee, or maybe there's a holder holding it, but there's nobody covering."
• Jarret Johnson, LB, Ravens: "You kick from the 50, off the tee. You can cover it. We've gone over it in meetings, but you don't practice it because it's the kicker kicking off a tee."
• Correct answer: A fair-catch kick is a field goal attempt following a fair catch. It can be a placekick or dropkick, but no tee may be used. It cannot be defensed.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?section=magazine&id=3737653

Goodell? Good God!

So, I think now that we've spent some time in the Roger Goodell era of the NFL, it might be the time to take a look at how it's affected both our favorite team, and the league as a whole. (Dav, I don't want to hear about the 'Skins. Ian, you're excused.)

Tagliabue had gotten a pretty bad rep there at the end, and the league itself, as Bengals fans well know, had devolved into day care for millionaire man-children behaving badly. Drunken boating, smoking pot and screwing around with teenagers, establishing and running vast dog-fighting networks in the greater-Atlanta area, eating only McDonalds in the offseason (I'm looking at you, Ocho-Cinco). These are all things that all of us would love to spend our time doing, but we don't. Because it's not appropriate or even moral. I think it's safe to say we left all that behind in college, right? But not NFL superstars.

So in comes the new sheriff, and while things haven't calmed down entirely, there are certainly less reported incidents. But wait, there's bad news.

The bizarre, off-field antics have been muted somewhat, in favor of odd, totalitarian 1984-esque "the rules are the rules and I reserve the right to change the rules at any time without notice" power plays by the upper-management of the sport. Here's a Deadspin post that goes into it slightly. Everyone gets fined for everything, no one knows what's ok and whats verboten, and Hines Ward gets two fines for normal hits, but NOTHING for a career-threatening shot on Bengals rookie LB Keith Rivers. They say the hit was clean, which I think is debatable.

That isn't the only example, obviously. Justin Tuck, Adrian Wilson, and this bizarre episode that's also chronicled in the Deadspin post, wherein Andrew Whitworth and John Henderson are fined equally for an episode that pretty clearly started and ended with Henderson:



So what's the deal? Have we exchanged an ineffectual doormat of a commissioner with a mad despot who rules the league with all the stability of Kim Jong-Il? Or is this just part of the transition from lawless Mad Max wasteland NFL to an Aldous Huxley sports league?

I'm putting the question to the House. I believe that part of the NFL's appeal is its reputation as the "Wild West" among major sports (sorry, hockey), and Goodell is trying to introduce order into a situation which is always going to reject it. Do you guys think we're going to see major changes? Or is Goodell's entire tenure going to be known as the period of arbitrary fines and confused players taking their frustration out on each other?

Sub-question: Has Goodell helped or hurt the Bengals, or were they always destined to collapse like this?

I Don't Care

I don't care if Michael Vick didn't really throw balls out of the stadium or if LeBron didn't nail 85 footers with regularity or if Kobe didn't jump over that car...




This is freaking sweet. It looks so realistic, though I'm sure Ham or Eon will claim they could put this together with 30 minutes on Apple's Final Cut Pro.

Give props to Reebok for a fantastic viral marketing campaign.

Vegas Conspiracy

From Mike:

I believe Tom Brady's boot and ankle injury is a hoax. Brady is not hurt, but has been paid by Las Vegas, to wear this boot to raise questions about his health. Vegas and the odds makers want to stay away from the largest line in SB History and do not want everyone and their mother to take the Pats to cover.

Thus Brady is wearing the boot and not practicing when the media covers practice...the longer this farce continues, the more the line continues to drop, the more Vegas relaxes.

Did you really think Vegas is going to take a bath on the largest sports event in the world? It is a shame to what extent money influences American sports and an even bigger shame that Brady and Belichick would buy into it.

The PATS will cover, will go undefeated, but at a lesser line causing all those NYG supporters to lose money and like Jerry Seinfeld, Vegas will continue to break even.

Thoughts?

The Grass is ALWAYS Greener

According to recent reports from TWWL, Pete Carroll is seriously considering leaving beautiful Southern California for the head coaching position..... of the Atlanta Falcons! Zuh?!?

Why oh why, would you leave the Trojan Empire you have created to join an organization that has been in a 2007 nightmarish tailspin? He has six straight conference championships, 2 AP National Titles, and first pick on all the nation's West Coast recruits. For what more could you ask??

Apparently, he has that same Billy Donovan, Nick Saban, Rick Pitino, Steve Spurrier- itch that just needs to be scratched. He'll take the job, coach three or four years and take a golden parachute back to some other PAC 10 program. When will these coaches realize that being a king of a collegiate empire is just as good, if not better, than being just another NFL head coach.

Radio Hyperbole

So I was listening to 92.7 (the local Redskins/ESPN affiliate) this morning, and one of the blowhards said this:

"In a season of highs and lows for the Redskins on and off the field, surely the resignation of Joe Gibbs has to be the most shocking and unpredictable event."

Really? Most shocking?? Most unpredictable??? Zuh???????

If I had to set odds on the likelihood of certain events occurring before the season, I would have put it at this:

3-2: Redskins finishing .500 or better
2-1: Redskins making the playoffs
5-1: Redskins winning four straight to make the playoffs
10-1: Redskins making the NFC Championship game
25-1: Redskins making the Super Bowl
50-1: Redskins winning the Super Bowl

3-1: Joe Gibbs Retiring/Resigning
7,500-1: A Redskin murdered in the middle of the season

I think all these figures are accurate. I based them on bets I would have considered from both ways, and the Sean Taylor figure from the total number of professional athletes murdered in the last decade crossed with the overall homicide rate in America.

So, Mr. Bloviated Radio Talking Head, how can you tell me, with a straight face, that considering EVERYTHING, Joe Gibbs retiring was the most shocking thing that happened??

The Game

With all apologies to the upcoming Battle of Ohio, the biggest game left on the Bengals schedule has to be the season finale in South Florida versus the winless Miami Dolphins. Allow me to look ahead for one moment and predict two more losses for the Fins, a desperate loss to the hapless Ravens and a massacre in Foxboro to the juggernaut Patriots.

Assuming both those games, the Bengals will travel to South Beach for a December 30th game against the 0-15 Dolphins, trying to 'perfect' the first winless season since the 0-14 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

As a Bengals fan, you've got to be worried.

Who's to say that the Bengals, having been out of the playoff picture since Thanksgiving, wont just punt the game away? Here's hoping that the Bengals play the game as their own SuperBowl, and make it their season goal to bury the Dolphins into football immortality.

We're sorry Houston... Cleveland...

Thanks to a blackout in Oakland due to a non-sellout of the game, the only markets that wont see the Pats-Colts in Super Bowl 41.5 are Houston and Cleveland. Houston, due to seeing the Texans-Raiders affair and Cleveland as their home team plays a game on FOX during the same time slot.

We're sorry. Go out to the bar Houston and Cleveland. This game will be well worth it.

Paging Dr. Goodell

Here comes a true test for NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell in dealing with the scheduled game between the Houston Texans and the San Diego Chargers in fire-ravaged Southern California.

Fortunately, he has quite a precedent in looking at past decisions dealing with the nexus of sports and national disasters. From the assassination of JFK (Rozelle deemed his decision to not postpone the games the worst of his life), to the 1981 NCAA title game during the assassination attempt of Reagan, to the attacks of 9/11, to Hurricane Katrina, sports commissioners have had to make the tough decision of how and when the games will go on.

Qualcomm Stadium is currently a disaster refugee site. See the amazing first-hand picture here. The games cannot be played here. A make up date later in the schedule is unlikely too. They could play the game in the first week of the playoffs, but that would be taking a massive risk that neither team would be playoff eligible.

Potential game sites have ranged from Los Angeles Coliseum to Monster Park in San Francisco to Arizona's Sun Devil Stadium (The Cardinals stadium is hosting a motorcycle rally), to Texas Stadium in Irving, to Reliant Stadium in Houston. I am certain Goddell will not choose Houston as that would give the Texans a 9th home game and would replicate the mistake his predecssor Tags made in having the Saints 'host' the Giants at the Meadowlands. Look for the game to be held in Arizona, where the Chargers are currently practicing.

Commisioner, the sports world is waiting on your move. Make it with deceny, decisiveness, and fairness.

How Hot is that Seat, Exactly?

On the heels of the news from ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio that Ocho Cinco wants out at the end of the season, one must wonder exactly what Marvin Lewis has to do to get on the hot seat with Bengals management. From a sports gambling website, I looked at the odds of who will be the first coach fired. Surprisingly, Marvin was not in the top ten! I know that Cincinnati is in a glee considering that we have become the first city in American sporting history to have an African-American MLB manager and NFL head coach at the same time, but that situation cannot trump performance.

Marvin, brought in as a defensive guru, leads the third-worst defense in the entire NFL. The offense, which he is remarkably hands-off, has thrived. Yet he doesn't endure the same criticism that he may deserve because of his affable relationship with the local business, religious leaders and press.

"My job is to get the junior college guys to act like they've gone to Notre Dame and Michigan," Lewis said. "As we go, we'll continue to get more of those stable guys. But unfortunately, that's what we're dealing with -- a bunch of junior college guys."

Hmm.. you know what that sounds like? What's that expression that is often bantered around immoral and failing college programs? Oh yeah... Lack of Institutional Control.

Marvin, the bloom is off the rose. Start coaching like your job's on the line. We can all only hope that it is.

Who's On This Week?

Do you ever wonder why certain NFL games are shown in certain cities? Do you wonder which game you or the majority of the country will get to see this week? For those of us who don't have the Sunday Ticket (giving that up was one of the toughest decisions I've ever made), this website is invaluable to learning more about how the decisions to show certain games are configured.

http://www.the506.com/nflmaps/

Points of note:

Local affiliation trumps all.
National game of interest usually carries.
Games involving your team's rivals (usually in division).

But then, there's a funny fourth category: where a star may have played high school or college football. There's always a shred of red in the map in Southern Mississippi, that carries Bret Favre's Packers games more reliably than Milwaukee. Knoxville, TN has an affinity for Peyton and the Colts. As Ian can tell you, you used to not go anywhere on a fall Sunday in Danville without seeing local-boy Tim Couch's Browns on TV (and he was just holding a clipboard!).

Anyway, hope you enjoy this an interesting and useful resource.

MNF: Bills and Boys

Monday Night Football rolls to Orchard Park tonight as the 1-3 Bills host the undefeated Cowboys. It’s the first time the Bills have hosted MNF since the last time the Democrats had a majority in the House (Fall of 1994, for those outside the Beltway). After a heartbreaking, last-second opening loss to the Broncos, the Bills have lost as expected on the road to Pittsburgh and New England then upset the Jets at home. The Boys on the other hand have steamrolled through Giants, Fins, Bears and Rams winning by nearly twenty points per game.

It will be an uphill battle, but look for the Bills to try to control early with RB Marshawn Lynch, considering rookie and former Stanford Cardinal QB Trent Edwards will be making his second start. Protecting the football will be imperative as the Cowboys lead the NFL in turnover margin (+7). Ideally, the Bills don’t want to be in a position where they will have to ask Edwards to make big plays, but if the Boys have any weakness, it is their pass defense.

On the opposite side of the ball, Tony Romo will try to rip apart the worst defense in the NFL; opposing quarterbacks have averaged nearly 285 yards per game, easily the worst in the league. Watch for TE Jason Witten to have a big game catching balls across the middle. With the game in hand, the Cowboys can control the tempo with Marion Barber III (his friends call him Trip) and Julius Jones.

My prediction is that the Bills keep it interesting in the first half, but quick scores in the third quarter lead to an easy Dallas victory. Holding with my prediction from the Pickem Challenge, I’ll say the Bills add a late score to cover.

Dallas 28

Buffalo 20

What's your prediction? What are the keys to the game? Who will have a fantasy breakout? Post in the comments.