So, reading tonight's preview of the Reds-Brewers match-up, I took a gander at ESPN's "accuscore" projection, which said that we were 51-49 percentage point favorites, which is essentially a wash, but I couldn't help but think that it made absolutely no sense to call us the favorites.
Much as I want to assume the Reds will always win, the pitching match-up is Ben Sheets (2-0, 1.17 ERA) against Arroyo (0-1, 5.17 ERA).
Going beyond the bare numbers, since we all agree that wins and ERA are augurs of a false baseball god, Sheets has been on a roll this season (20 K's, 0.70 WHIP in 3 starts) while Arroyo has struggled not-so mightily, and had trouble getting very far into games. For now, I'll assume that the bats are roughly equal since both sides have had bumpy seas and struggling stars on the offensive end (I'm looking at YOU Prince Fielder, supposed anchor of my fantasy offense).
My question is, what makes this accuscore machine so accurate. I couldn't find any numbers about its average success rate on the Web site, so why is this damn thing even there if not an effort to cross-pollinate a little Bodog traffic?
Accuscore belongs with "Who's More Now?" in the annals of ESPN crap that needs to be shown the door.
It is now 5:30, and I have successfully killed the last 15 minutes of my work day. Later.
1 comment:
And the truth shall set you free! Arroyo completely roughed up from the outset.
It's starting to look like last year was the rule rather than the exception with him.
Funny though how much better pitchers seem to get when they have even a little run support...
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