All I'm saying is, get your Louisville Bats season tickets soon.
If you believe the Belisle hype and they acquired Josh Fogg to stabilize the rotation that means there is only one spot left for Bailey, Affeldt, Volquez, Cueto or Matt Maloney. For those Bruce Miller haters out there, that's 5 guys trying to squeeze into one spot. Will any one score against the Bats this season with that kind of rotation in Triple A?
But, riddle me this ye great minds of the Norwood House...How are any of these young guys going to see enough big league action to mature into a regular starter?
Why were they so precious as trade incentives, but not good enough to plug in to the rotation?
Enlighten me...
4 comments:
I have no idea the numbers, but I am sure there is a regular attrition rate with Pitchers, meaning 20% of all top pitching prospects turn into Aces, 40% turn into regular rotation guys, 10% go into the bullpen and the rest never quite make it. So as I see it, If you have a sizeable group of prospects, why would you trade them until you know who is the Ace and who are the duds. Obviously this isn't an exact science, but the more guys we keep around the better chance we have of finding the true top flight pitcher.
And once we know who that is, then let the rest flourish in AAA and trade them away for 75% of their past value and still get more for them on the open market than what they are truly worth.
Or the reds front office has no idea what it is doing.... either way.
As Flip pointed out, this signing reeks of being a stop-gap.
Unwilling to match the Orioles steep price for Bedard, the Reds find themselves holding all their top pitching prospects going into the season. Because none have truly dominated at AAA, let alone for any time in the majors, you can rest assured there will be growing pains and rocky-times coming this year. Instead of throwing 2 or 3 into the rotation and risking Dusty going all Wood and Prior on them, the Reds have a couple of older guys who are breathtakingly mediocre to eat some of the 2008 innings while the 'kids' hone their craft in front of the fine citizens of Louisville.
Basically, I think 2008 is a year where Bruce and Votto can establish themselves as regualrs going forward, where Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez can hopefully show dominant signs at AAA and get a good cup of coffee in the majors. 2009 now looks like the year this team needs to take a major step forward. Hopefully 2008 will provide the prospects enough quality seasoning to make that happen.
And on top of that, Fogg at $1 mill is very reasonable in today's baseball market. Who knows, if he pitches over his head for a half-season the Reds can even cash him in for a couple prospects going forward. It's a low-risk, low-reward signing in my book. Affeldt too. I think they are human-restraints against Dusty getting too much hands on time with 22 year-old arms.
I completely agree with Phil...kudos to Reds management for knowing Dusty's history w/ the past young guns and taking some preventative measures.
Post a Comment