Okay boys,
It's time. I gotta know what you're doing on Tuesday. Did you vote early? Are you planning on standing in line? Mikey, are you also registered under Miguel Hankley? Does Ginny know something the rest of us don't!!??
By my calculations, the Norwood House has pretty substantial pull in this election.
You've got Mikey, Phil, and me (voting absentee...thank you very much transient lifestyle) voting in Ohio. That's 20 electoral votes in a state that is still classified as a toss up in some polls.
Flip's vote in North Carolina could decide 15 electoral votes. Also a toss up state.
And Dave's vote could tip the scale in Virginia (which I think will be much closer than the 6.5 spread Real Clear Politics shows today)and it's 13 electoral votes.
Sorry Matt and Martin, your votes are worthless, unless Obama reveals that he's actually the estraned son of Dick Cheney and Ann Coulter...and even then...
That means that 47 Electoral Votes could swing one way or the other thanks to us!
Which also means we could effectively cancel out any single state (except California) and many other combinations of smaller states (e.g. GA-15, MO-11, ND-3, ID-4, WA-11, and-MT 3).
You don't have to include who you voted for unless you want to, but I'm just curious how this momentus event is impacting my closest frieds.
What is the atmosphere in your neck of the woods? Are you being swamped with commercials? Do you check the polls everyday?
I can tell you that I've never seen so many people with one mindset as I'm seeing up here in Chicagobamaland (or Barack-acago if you prefer). My office is about a five minute walk from where he (and an expected 1,000,000 supporters- seriously) will be on Tuesday night. We only get about one commercial every other day up here. LOTS of Obama wear all over the place. In fact, I've only seen one McCain yard sign, and that was about 25 miles north of downtown in the Indian Hill on steroids neighborhood of Glencoe.
No matter what happens, this has been FASCINATING! What are you seeing?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Teaching Civics I actually talk about the presidential and other races about every single day in class, and the students are about 90% Obama (go figure).
But the presidential race is not the most contested here in NC. The race for Govenor and state senate are very closely contested, and very heated races.
Elizabeth Dole is currently losing to an upstart Dem. here named Kay Hagen, and Dole has recently lost points because she put out an ad that basically called Hagen a Godless heathen because she was supported by an atheist PAC. But it turns out Hagen is an elder in the presbyterian church and never even took money from that organization...woops.
Pat McCrory (r), current mayor of Charlotte, is in a battle against Bev Perdue (d) who I call the chicken lady. Although I think McCrory will win beause he is commonly credited for revitilizing Charlotte over the past 10 years, and has somehow managed to keep his nose clean over the Wachovia thing by blaming wall street.
The Presidential race here is a little strange. Lots of people talk about it, but nobody talks about it. There are signs everywhere, and they are about 50/50. Everyone seems to have their mind made up, but nobody really gets in arguments about it, at least not as much as they did in DC, they just let whoever has the stronger opinion say their peice and move on.
But Obama seems to be carrying the big cities, and college towns, so McCain needs to sweep the 'bumpkin areas' (and there are a lot) in order to win.
I get at least 5 flyers in the mail every day, and at least 1 political ad every comercial break. Personally I want to get it all over with, but Johanna and I have had some interesting conversations because we want to vote for the same people so we do not cancel eachother out so it has at least been an interesting talking point all fall.
So I think it will be Obama and Hagen close, McCrory big.
I second Flipper on the state senate thing. Believe it or not, the New York State Senate has had a republican majority for nearly 4 decades, and this year, if democrats pick up 2 seats, the balance will tip in their favor in both the state senate and assembly. guess who's neighborhoods (the one where I live and the one I write about) are the most closely contested? I'm going to have a busy night Tuesday. Up very late, and Wednesday's going to be hell.
With a democratic governor, two democrat senators, almost exclusively democratic representatives, if that reversal occurs, NY state will be as blue as the city, for governing purposes. It will be interesting to see what happens when the democrats can't blame the senate for not getting anything done, which is all they do now.
I think Obama's coattails will be enough to flip the senate, and those crazy-ass liberals are going to run roughshod over this state. It's going to be hilarious.
My guess for the presidency? Obama clears 320 electoral votes. the only swing state that swings for McCain is Florida, and just barely.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to wake up early because I'm canvassing in North Philly tomorrow.
Simply put, I'm ready to have my life back. Two years ago I dove in wholeheartedly into this election, committed to watching and reading everything I could. 26 Democratic debates and 21 Republican primary debates later came and went and I can honestly say that I Tivo'ed and watched every single one (save for the Univision one that Chris Dodd was pissed he couldn't show off his excellent Spanish skills).
I read the books of the candidates. I read them all. Leadership by Giuliani. Living History by Clinton. From Hope to Higher Ground by Huckabee. And, of course, Dreams of my Father and the Audacity of Hope. I bought an early edition of 'Dreams' right after the 2004 DNC and read it then but re-read it more recently during this campaign.
And those were just the books.
I made bookmarks of DailyKos, FiveThirtyEight, TalkingPointsMemo, ThePolitico RealClearPolitics, Todd's First Read, Halperin's TheNote, NYTimes The Trail, WaPost's The Fix and course Waller's NationalJournal and Atlantic website (especially super bloggers Sullivan, Crook, and Douthat). And those were just the ones I refreshed three-five times a day.
Tivo got filled up with every Meet the Press. Then the next day at work I would always re-read the transcript from MTP on the crapper.
I feel like I've given (in an exciting way of course) two years of my life to following this race.
Over the course of the race, I went to major rallies for both parties. I signed for both side's email list. I even met Senator McCain. I've basically donated my life and my wife to this election.
Honestly, I'm ready for it to be done, but I think we can safely say this has been the most incredible election in at least two generations. Maybe, just maybe, the 1960 election compares, but I disagree.
So, where do we stand?
It's a change year, a change election and only one candidate has truly and rightly embraced the concept of change. Both of Sen. Obama's opponents (HRC and JSM) have kept altering their own personal message and narrative in an effort to reframe the debate. It has not worked. (NYT's Sunday Magazine last weekend had an excellent piece on this: The Making (and Remaking) of McCain). More than policy, Presidential politics are about personal narratives.
So let's look into the crystal ball.
Obama - 51.5
McCain - 47
Nader/Barr/etc - 1.5
EC
Obama - 340
McCain - 195
States:
Obama will carry the Kerry states, plus (in order of ease): New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and yes even Indiana in a squeaker. I kinda agree with Matt that FL might be the only holdout despite the work of the 'Great Schlep'.
It's going to be over before NBC's Nightly News is over at 10pm. Truthfully, all it will take is a for either VA or NC in the East Coast to go and that should be enough to call it. The networks might be a little reluctant though.
The real races to watch will be to see who can pick up the most seats in Congress and the passage of Proposition 8 in California. For the true political junkie, those are the ones worth watching.
It's going to be a blue-bloodbath in the Senate, but I think they will hold up just short of the 60 seats. Probably ending at 59 counting Indy's Sanders and Libermann. The closest will be Franken over Coleman in MN, but the Dems wont win in battlegrounds GA, MS, and KY. Although we might be surprised with nearly 100% African American turnout in those states doing major things.
As to the future, I think Obama has a chance to become a pretty good president. He's already dropping hints of a bipartisan administration (Hagel at State or Defense, S. Collins at Homeland Security?, Gates still at Defense?), and his transition team has been working for nearly two months straight on the issues. With a truly liberal Congress, I think he will recognize the moment to be a counterweight to that, and govern as a pragmatic centrist. I think his economic people will get in his ear and convince him that it probably not a good thing to raise taxes on folks during a recession. I think the military folks will convince him of a safe but honorable exit from Iraq. I read something somewhere recently where they said that Obama is no longer a part of the Democratic party. He is his own candidate, an Independent endorsed by the Democrats. They say this as he has a bigger email list than the RNC and DNC combined, more money, more potential fundraisers, and has brought more people into the political dialogue than anyone before. He is not going to be controlled by any factor in the Democratic establishment - Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Clinton. He will govern as his own man, with an eye on history. And, let's be frank, if he does well, he will have a chance to go down as one of the best ever. For better or for worse, he's inheriting a country that is mired in an economic recession, two ongoing wars, a housing meltdown, a credit crisis, and partisan gridlock in DC. If he can see it through successfully, he might have a chance to be on that currency which he teased earlier this campaign.
Post a Comment