Hey boys,
With spring training under way, I again ask my baseball gurus to enlighten me about a subject I am woefully under-informed about: Batting order.
Beyond the obvious (batting a fast lead-off hitter) I don't understand why a manager pays so much attention to who bats when. Is it good statisical baseball, or is it all about massaging your hitter's ego?
I came across a super nerdy article(http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/lineup_art.htm) that concludes:
"...batting orders matter even less than people have believed. You would think that with such complicated forces at work here, some truly bizarre lineups might have been more efficient than the obvious ones used throughout the years, but if they exist, the methods described in this article didn't find them...There are lots of instances of very different lineups producing almost identical results. But if the normal lineups do almost as well as these creative ones, is there any percentage in straying from conventional wisdom? I don't think so. And I guess that's the real conclusion of this article: since all but the most pathologically weird lineups produce just about the same number of runs, I might be inclined to select the lineup that makes the most intuitive sense to the players and fans. Simply put, it's not worth all the fuss you'd cause trying to be clever with lineups."
Please explain.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
While I am not versed on the particulars, here is how I understand it.
the traditional idea is you get the first runner on, the second batter moves him over and the 3rd batter knocks them in, with the 4th guy 'cleaning up' any of the strays. Therefore you find players to fit that mold, and even if the rest of the hitters stink, that basic order of hitters will always be there. If you spread them out too thin then you may never get enough people on base for the 3 and 4 guys to knock anyone home. And if you have enough good hitters so there are not that many holes in the lineup then good for you.
Another theory I have heard is that (while maintaining the previous paragraph's basic pattern for the top 4 guys) you want your best hitters to bat as many times as possible. So having them in the top of the order will ensure that even if no other hitters get any production then those guys will still have the most at bats. Every slot in the order is going to get at least 3 at bats, so if there are only 4 extra at bats all game then you want your 4 best hitters getting them.
Post a Comment