People say kids should play sports because it teaches life lessons...Here's quick lesson in math:
The Reds re-signed Matt Belisle today for $1.25 million. Last year he made $390,000. He went 8-9 with a 5.32 ERA. That's a 300% increase.
What other job in the world gives you a 300% raise for what any rational person would describe as a mediocre season at best?
Just askin'...
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3 comments:
Sir E-on,
Not to go all stat geek on you, but W's, L's, and ERA do not begin to paint the picture of a pitcher's ability, performance, and value.
Consider- Matt Belisle and Bronson Arroyo had nearly identical secondary stats last year, yet Arroyo finished with an ERA almost a run lower. The overwhelming statistical thought is there is a lot of random variance for pitchers in a lot of areas (BABIP, LOB%, etc.) and these fluctuations can lead to performance variances from year to year that can be chalked up to plain, old dumb luck.
Now, what Matt Belisle's 2007 tells me is that he should be in for a pretty sizeable improvement in 2008. Combine that with the fact that he threw a pretty decent work-load last year (172 IP) and he is going to be a very cost-efficient, valuable player next year. I'll bet his 2008 salary is one of the best bargains on the Reds, in the Central, and perhaps all of the NL.
Of course, that's not really why he got the raise. He got the raise because of MLB's arbitration process which is another can of worms entirely...
I have to say, I'm with Phil on this one.
I watched Belisle pitch in a lot of games last year, and even when he lost, I was still impressed with his stuff a good percentage of the time.
I feel like Pitcher is the one position in baseball where the experience that you get in the pro's is SIGNIFICANTLY more valuable than the experience you get in the minors, which is why medium- to small-market teams are always so willing (aside from the obvious financial necessity) to make big leaps on players whose surface stats don't really justify them.
Also, the potential headlines in the Enquirer sports section make him a valuable addition to the team in the event that he catches fire this year. Observe:
"Matt Belisttles Astros in 8-inning shutout,"
"Beguiling Belisle Holds Cubs to 1 in Reds Win,"
Etc.
It's possible I've been reading too much of the New York Post.
I'm not saying that he's not worth it to the Reds. I understand that good pitching is hard to find and even harder to predict.
What I'm saying is that to an outsider, it's appears absurd. Though I suppose if a salesman made 8 sales out of 17 attempts that would be a good average. But I have no reference point for that.
As far as arbitration, Belisle got LESS money than he asked for. Which is part of that process, but it's like a kid mowing half your lawn, then asking for three times (or "thrice" if you prefer) what you paid him last week.
And if experience in the majors is SO important, why not just call up the three big prospects now?
Ahhh..baseball. How do we love thee.
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